TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | Mark Twain | Montgomery County |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 1-4 | 3-2 |
| PF / GAME | 18.4 | 24.7 |
| PA / GAME | 29.6 | 26.3 |
| AVG MARGIN | -13.5 | +0.3 |
| SOS | -10.6 | -10.8 |
| POWER | -17.2 | -3.5 |
MONTGOMERY COUNTY WRITES THE FINAL WORD
Montgomery County finished the job, as Mark Twain and Montgomery County finished 0-42. MOFO got the winner right; the model had projected a 21-29 final.
The actual margin was 42 points versus MOFO's 7.8-point projection. That produced a 34.2-point margin error, with score errors of 20.8 for Mark Twain and 13.3 for Montgomery County.
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD MONTGOMERY COUNTY
MOFO leans toward Montgomery County because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 13.7-point power-rating advantage and projects a 7.8-point margin, with Montgomery County carrying a 74% win probability.
The clearest separator is scoring: Montgomery County enters at 24.7 points per game compared with 18.4 for Mark Twain. Montgomery County also allows 3.3 fewer points per game, giving MOFO an edge on both sides of the ball.
Strength of schedule checks in at -10.8 for Montgomery County and -10.6 for Mark Twain. Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses current-season results, the confidence remains high.
01Montgomery County owns the stronger scoring profile.
02Mark Twain has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 13.7-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.