TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | Marshall | Moberly |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 1-4 | 4-1 |
| PF / GAME | 19.9 | 31.0 |
| PA / GAME | 30.9 | 19.0 |
| AVG MARGIN | -17.0 | +13.1 |
| SOS | -5.3 | -1.5 |
| POWER | -18.8 | +12.5 |
MOBERLY WRITES THE FINAL WORD
Moberly finished the job, as Marshall and Moberly finished 7-56. MOFO got the winner right; the model had projected a 16-34 final.
The actual margin was 49 points versus MOFO's 18.5-point projection. That produced a 30.5-point margin error, with score errors of 9.0 for Marshall and 21.6 for Moberly.
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD MOBERLY
MOFO leans toward Moberly because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 31.4-point power-rating advantage and projects a 18.5-point margin, with Moberly carrying a 92% win probability.
The clearest separator is scoring: Moberly enters at 31.0 points per game compared with 19.9 for Marshall. Moberly also allows 11.9 fewer points per game, giving MOFO an edge on both sides of the ball.
Strength of schedule checks in at -1.5 for Moberly and -5.3 for Marshall. Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses current-season results, the confidence remains high.
01Moberly owns the stronger scoring profile.
02Moberly has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 31.4-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.