TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | Nevada | McDonald County |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 4-1 | 1-4 |
| PF / GAME | 24.6 | 21.1 |
| PA / GAME | 23.7 | 33.7 |
| AVG MARGIN | +0.8 | -18.8 |
| SOS | +1.9 | +5.8 |
| POWER | +1.5 | -16.8 |
MCDONALD COUNTY WRITES THE FINAL WORD
McDonald County finished the job, as Nevada and McDonald County finished 12-35. MOFO's pick of Nevada missed; the model had projected a 31-20 final.
The actual margin was 23 points versus MOFO's 10.9-point projection. That produced a 33.9-point margin error, with score errors of 19.2 for Nevada and 14.7 for McDonald County.
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD NEVADA
MOFO leans toward Nevada because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 18.2-point power-rating advantage and projects a 10.9-point margin, with Nevada carrying a 81% win probability.
The clearest separator is scoring: Nevada enters at 24.6 points per game compared with 21.1 for McDonald County. Nevada also allows 10.0 fewer points per game, giving MOFO an edge on both sides of the ball.
Strength of schedule checks in at +1.9 for Nevada and +5.8 for McDonald County. Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses current-season results, the confidence remains high.
01Nevada owns the stronger scoring profile.
02McDonald County has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 18.2-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.