TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | Bolivar | Marshfield |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| PF / GAME | 29.6 | 31.9 |
| PA / GAME | 23.1 | 25.4 |
| AVG MARGIN | +6.7 | +6.1 |
| SOS | +2.6 | -9.5 |
| POWER | +7.5 | +2.8 |
BOLIVAR WRITES THE FINAL WORD
Bolivar finished the job, as Bolivar and Marshfield finished 28-14. MOFO got the winner right; the model had projected a 28-27 final.
The actual margin was 14 points versus MOFO's 1.4-point projection. That produced a 12.6-point margin error, with score errors of 0.2 for Bolivar and 12.8 for Marshfield.
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD BOLIVAR
MOFO leans toward Bolivar because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 4.8-point power-rating advantage and projects a 1.4-point margin, with Bolivar carrying a 55% win probability.
Marshfield actually owns the stronger raw scoring average, so this pick is driven more by opponent adjustment and the complete power profile than offense alone. Bolivar also allows 2.3 fewer points per game, giving MOFO an edge on both sides of the ball.
Strength of schedule checks in at +2.6 for Bolivar and -9.5 for Marshfield. Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses current-season results, the confidence remains low.
01Marshfield owns the stronger scoring profile.
02Bolivar has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 4.8-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.