TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | Miller | Marionville |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| PF / GAME | 31.0 | 23.6 |
| PA / GAME | 10.9 | 24.1 |
| AVG MARGIN | +21.3 | -0.8 |
| SOS | -6.1 | +5.3 |
| POWER | +19.2 | +1.0 |
MARIONVILLE WRITES THE FINAL WORD
Marionville finished the job, as Miller and Marionville finished 6-26. MOFO's pick of Miller missed; the model had projected a 29-15 final.
The actual margin was 20 points versus MOFO's 14.1-point projection. That produced a 34.1-point margin error, with score errors of 23.4 for Miller and 10.7 for Marionville.
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD MILLER
MOFO leans toward Miller because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 18.2-point power-rating advantage and projects a 14.1-point margin, with Miller carrying a 87% win probability.
The clearest separator is scoring: Miller enters at 31.0 points per game compared with 23.6 for Marionville. Miller also allows 13.2 fewer points per game, giving MOFO an edge on both sides of the ball.
Strength of schedule checks in at -6.1 for Miller and +5.3 for Marionville. Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses current-season results, the confidence remains high.
01Miller owns the stronger scoring profile.
02Marionville has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 18.2-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.