TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | Gallatin with Tri-County | Marceline |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| PF / GAME | 21.7 | 21.0 |
| PA / GAME | 23.3 | 27.4 |
| AVG MARGIN | -2.3 | -7.2 |
| SOS | +0.4 | +3.2 |
| POWER | -2.1 | -6.0 |
MARCELINE WRITES THE FINAL WORD
Marceline finished the job, as Gallatin with Tri-County and Marceline finished 6-9. MOFO's pick of Gallatin with Tri-County missed; the model had projected a 25-22 final.
The actual margin was 3 points versus MOFO's 3.0-point projection. That produced a 6.0-point margin error, with score errors of 18.8 for Gallatin with Tri-County and 12.9 for Marceline.
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD GALLATIN WITH TRI-COUNTY
MOFO leans toward Gallatin with Tri-County because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 3.9-point power-rating advantage and projects a 3.0-point margin, with Gallatin with Tri-County carrying a 60% win probability.
The clearest separator is scoring: Gallatin with Tri-County enters at 21.7 points per game compared with 21.0 for Marceline. Gallatin with Tri-County also allows 4.1 fewer points per game, giving MOFO an edge on both sides of the ball.
Strength of schedule checks in at +0.4 for Gallatin with Tri-County and +3.2 for Marceline. Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses current-season results, the confidence remains low.
01Gallatin with Tri-County owns the stronger scoring profile.
02Marceline has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 3.9-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.