TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | St. Pius X (Festus) | Lutheran St. Charles |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 4-1 | 0-5 |
| PF / GAME | 48.0 | 11.3 |
| PA / GAME | 16.0 | 49.4 |
| AVG MARGIN | +26.8 | -35.0 |
| SOS | -3.1 | +0.4 |
| POWER | +25.8 | -34.9 |
ST. PIUS X (FESTUS) WRITES THE FINAL WORD
St. Pius X (Festus) finished the job, as St. Pius X (Festus) and Lutheran St. Charles finished 46-6. MOFO got the winner right; the model had projected a 55-7 final.
The actual margin was 40 points versus MOFO's 48.6-point projection. That produced a 8.6-point margin error, with score errors of 9.5 for St. Pius X (Festus) and 0.9 for Lutheran St. Charles.
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD ST. PIUS X (FESTUS)
MOFO leans toward St. Pius X (Festus) because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 60.6-point power-rating advantage and projects a 48.6-point margin, with St. Pius X (Festus) carrying a 95% win probability.
The clearest separator is scoring: St. Pius X (Festus) enters at 48.0 points per game compared with 11.3 for Lutheran St. Charles. St. Pius X (Festus) also allows 33.4 fewer points per game, giving MOFO an edge on both sides of the ball.
Strength of schedule checks in at -3.1 for St. Pius X (Festus) and +0.4 for Lutheran St. Charles. Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses current-season results, the confidence remains high.
01St. Pius X (Festus) owns the stronger scoring profile.
02Lutheran St. Charles has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 60.6-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.