TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | Westminster Christian Academy | Lutheran North |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 4-1 | 1-3 |
| PF / GAME | 31.0 | 30.3 |
| PA / GAME | 16.0 | 25.8 |
| AVG MARGIN | +20.3 | +1.1 |
| SOS | -5.5 | +1.4 |
| POWER | +18.3 | +1.6 |
LUTHERAN NORTH WRITES THE FINAL WORD
Lutheran North finished the job, as Westminster Christian Academy and Lutheran North finished 19-40. MOFO's pick of Westminster Christian Academy missed; the model had projected a 30-22 final.
The actual margin was 21 points versus MOFO's 8.5-point projection. That produced a 29.5-point margin error, with score errors of 11.1 for Westminster Christian Academy and 18.5 for Lutheran North.
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD WESTMINSTER CHRISTIAN ACADEMY
MOFO leans toward Westminster Christian Academy because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 16.7-point power-rating advantage and projects a 8.5-point margin, with Westminster Christian Academy carrying a 76% win probability.
The clearest separator is scoring: Westminster Christian Academy enters at 31.0 points per game compared with 30.3 for Lutheran North. Westminster Christian Academy also allows 9.8 fewer points per game, giving MOFO an edge on both sides of the ball.
Strength of schedule checks in at -5.5 for Westminster Christian Academy and +1.4 for Lutheran North. Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses current-season results, the confidence remains medium.
01Westminster Christian Academy owns the stronger scoring profile.
02Lutheran North has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 16.7-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.