TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | New Heights Christian | Lockwood |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 1-4 | 5-0 |
| PF / GAME | 27.3 | 57.3 |
| PA / GAME | 38.9 | 26.4 |
| AVG MARGIN | -16.8 | +32.9 |
| SOS | -1.0 | -0.4 |
| POWER | -17.1 | +32.8 |
LOCKWOOD WRITES THE FINAL WORD
Lockwood finished the job, as New Heights Christian and Lockwood finished 0-13. MOFO got the winner right; the model had projected a 21-54 final.
The actual margin was 13 points versus MOFO's 32.6-point projection. That produced a 19.6-point margin error, with score errors of 21.2 for New Heights Christian and 40.8 for Lockwood.
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD LOCKWOOD
MOFO leans toward Lockwood because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 49.9-point power-rating advantage and projects a 32.6-point margin, with Lockwood carrying a 95% win probability.
The clearest separator is scoring: Lockwood enters at 57.3 points per game compared with 27.3 for New Heights Christian. Lockwood also allows 12.5 fewer points per game, giving MOFO an edge on both sides of the ball.
Strength of schedule checks in at -0.4 for Lockwood and -1.0 for New Heights Christian. Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses current-season results, the confidence remains high.
01Lockwood owns the stronger scoring profile.
02Lockwood has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 49.9-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.