TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | Park Hill | Liberty |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 1-4 | 1-4 |
| PF / GAME | 21.7 | 25.0 |
| PA / GAME | 31.9 | 34.0 |
| AVG MARGIN | -14.5 | -9.7 |
| SOS | +4.4 | +4.1 |
| POWER | -13.0 | -8.3 |
PARK HILL WRITES THE FINAL WORD
Park Hill finished the job, as Park Hill and Liberty finished 49-17. MOFO's pick of Liberty missed; the model had projected a 27-29 final.
The actual margin was 32 points versus MOFO's 2.0-point projection. That produced a 34.0-point margin error, with score errors of 21.8 for Park Hill and 12.1 for Liberty.
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD LIBERTY
MOFO leans toward Liberty because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 4.7-point power-rating advantage and projects a 2.0-point margin, with Liberty carrying a 57% win probability.
The clearest separator is scoring: Liberty enters at 25.0 points per game compared with 21.7 for Park Hill. Park Hill's defensive numbers are competitive, which is the best statistical path to keeping the game tighter than projected.
Strength of schedule checks in at +4.1 for Liberty and +4.4 for Park Hill. Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses current-season results, the confidence remains low.
01Liberty owns the stronger scoring profile.
02Park Hill has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 4.7-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.