TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | Glendale | Lebanon |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| PF / GAME | 29.9 | 22.4 |
| PA / GAME | 30.4 | 36.0 |
| AVG MARGIN | -1.5 | -14.8 |
| SOS | +1.2 | +7.0 |
| POWER | -1.1 | -12.4 |
GLENDALE WRITES THE FINAL WORD
Glendale finished the job, as Glendale and Lebanon finished 49-38. MOFO got the winner right; the model had projected a 34-25 final.
The actual margin was 11 points versus MOFO's 8.9-point projection. That produced a 2.1-point margin error, with score errors of 14.9 for Glendale and 12.8 for Lebanon.
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD GLENDALE
MOFO leans toward Glendale because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 11.3-point power-rating advantage and projects a 8.9-point margin, with Glendale carrying a 77% win probability.
The clearest separator is scoring: Glendale enters at 29.9 points per game compared with 22.4 for Lebanon. Glendale also allows 5.6 fewer points per game, giving MOFO an edge on both sides of the ball.
Strength of schedule checks in at +1.2 for Glendale and +7.0 for Lebanon. Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses current-season results, the confidence remains high.
01Glendale owns the stronger scoring profile.
02Lebanon has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 11.3-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.