TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | Mid-Buchanan | Lawson |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 5-0 | 3-2 |
| PF / GAME | 43.4 | 26.9 |
| PA / GAME | 13.6 | 27.9 |
| AVG MARGIN | +33.4 | -2.1 |
| SOS | -0.5 | +0.5 |
| POWER | +33.2 | -2.0 |
MID-BUCHANAN WRITES THE FINAL WORD
Mid-Buchanan finished the job, as Mid-Buchanan and Lawson finished 34-14. MOFO got the winner right; the model had projected a 40-16 final.
The actual margin was 20 points versus MOFO's 23.2-point projection. That produced a 3.2-point margin error, with score errors of 5.5 for Mid-Buchanan and 2.3 for Lawson.
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD MID-BUCHANAN
MOFO leans toward Mid-Buchanan because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 35.2-point power-rating advantage and projects a 23.2-point margin, with Mid-Buchanan carrying a 95% win probability.
The clearest separator is scoring: Mid-Buchanan enters at 43.4 points per game compared with 26.9 for Lawson. Mid-Buchanan also allows 14.3 fewer points per game, giving MOFO an edge on both sides of the ball.
Strength of schedule checks in at -0.5 for Mid-Buchanan and +0.5 for Lawson. Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses current-season results, the confidence remains high.
01Mid-Buchanan owns the stronger scoring profile.
02Lawson has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 35.2-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.