TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | East Buchanan | Lathrop |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 3-2 | 5-0 |
| PF / GAME | 28.3 | 32.9 |
| PA / GAME | 29.4 | 15.6 |
| AVG MARGIN | -4.7 | +16.8 |
| SOS | +2.4 | -1.8 |
| POWER | -3.8 | +16.1 |
EAST BUCHANAN WRITES THE FINAL WORD
East Buchanan finished the job, as East Buchanan and Lathrop finished 40-34. MOFO's pick of Lathrop missed; the model had projected a 20-33 final.
The actual margin was 6 points versus MOFO's 13.8-point projection. That produced a 19.8-point margin error, with score errors of 20.4 for East Buchanan and 0.6 for Lathrop.
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD LATHROP
MOFO leans toward Lathrop because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 20.0-point power-rating advantage and projects a 13.8-point margin, with Lathrop carrying a 86% win probability.
The clearest separator is scoring: Lathrop enters at 32.9 points per game compared with 28.3 for East Buchanan. Lathrop also allows 13.8 fewer points per game, giving MOFO an edge on both sides of the ball.
Strength of schedule checks in at -1.8 for Lathrop and +2.4 for East Buchanan. Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses current-season results, the confidence remains high.
01Lathrop owns the stronger scoring profile.
02East Buchanan has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 20.0-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.