TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | Lindbergh | Kirkwood |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 2-3 | 3-1 |
| PF / GAME | 20.4 | 40.3 |
| PA / GAME | 23.7 | 24.7 |
| AVG MARGIN | -3.9 | +20.3 |
| SOS | +4.0 | +1.0 |
| POWER | -2.5 | +20.7 |
KIRKWOOD WRITES THE FINAL WORD
Kirkwood finished the job, as Lindbergh and Kirkwood finished 3-27. MOFO got the winner right; the model had projected a 20-34 final.
The actual margin was 24 points versus MOFO's 14.2-point projection. That produced a 9.8-point margin error, with score errors of 17.2 for Lindbergh and 7.4 for Kirkwood.
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD KIRKWOOD
MOFO leans toward Kirkwood because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 23.2-point power-rating advantage and projects a 14.2-point margin, with Kirkwood carrying a 87% win probability.
The clearest separator is scoring: Kirkwood enters at 40.3 points per game compared with 20.4 for Lindbergh. Lindbergh's defensive numbers are competitive, which is the best statistical path to keeping the game tighter than projected.
Strength of schedule checks in at +1.0 for Kirkwood and +4.0 for Lindbergh. Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses current-season results, the confidence remains medium.
01Kirkwood owns the stronger scoring profile.
02Lindbergh has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 23.2-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.