TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | Mexico | Kirksville |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 3-2 | 1-4 |
| PF / GAME | 22.0 | 15.3 |
| PA / GAME | 23.1 | 24.9 |
| AVG MARGIN | +1.6 | -13.8 |
| SOS | +3.0 | +5.9 |
| POWER | +2.7 | -11.7 |
KIRKSVILLE WRITES THE FINAL WORD
Kirksville finished the job, as Mexico and Kirksville finished 15-42. MOFO's pick of Mexico missed; the model had projected a 25-18 final.
The actual margin was 27 points versus MOFO's 7.5-point projection. That produced a 34.5-point margin error, with score errors of 10.1 for Mexico and 24.4 for Kirksville.
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD MEXICO
MOFO leans toward Mexico because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 14.4-point power-rating advantage and projects a 7.5-point margin, with Mexico carrying a 73% win probability.
The clearest separator is scoring: Mexico enters at 22.0 points per game compared with 15.3 for Kirksville. Mexico also allows 1.8 fewer points per game, giving MOFO an edge on both sides of the ball.
Strength of schedule checks in at +3.0 for Mexico and +5.9 for Kirksville. Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses current-season results, the confidence remains high.
01Mexico owns the stronger scoring profile.
02Kirksville has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 14.4-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.