TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | East Prairie | Kelly |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 1-4 | 3-2 |
| PF / GAME | 9.0 | 29.6 |
| PA / GAME | 33.7 | 23.3 |
| AVG MARGIN | -26.7 | +9.7 |
| SOS | -4.7 | -9.3 |
| POWER | -28.3 | +6.4 |
KELLY WRITES THE FINAL WORD
Kelly finished the job, as East Prairie and Kelly finished 0-45. MOFO got the winner right; the model had projected a 12-35 final.
The actual margin was 45 points versus MOFO's 22.9-point projection. That produced a 22.1-point margin error, with score errors of 12.5 for East Prairie and 9.7 for Kelly.
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD KELLY
MOFO leans toward Kelly because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 34.7-point power-rating advantage and projects a 22.9-point margin, with Kelly carrying a 95% win probability.
The clearest separator is scoring: Kelly enters at 29.6 points per game compared with 9.0 for East Prairie. Kelly also allows 10.4 fewer points per game, giving MOFO an edge on both sides of the ball.
Strength of schedule checks in at -9.3 for Kelly and -4.7 for East Prairie. Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses current-season results, the confidence remains high.
01Kelly owns the stronger scoring profile.
02East Prairie has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 34.7-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.