TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | Republic | Joplin |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| PF / GAME | 35.1 | 25.3 |
| PA / GAME | 21.3 | 26.4 |
| AVG MARGIN | +13.9 | -1.9 |
| SOS | +0.2 | -2.4 |
| POWER | +14.0 | -2.7 |
REPUBLIC WRITES THE FINAL WORD
Republic finished the job, as Republic and Joplin finished 35-0. MOFO got the winner right; the model had projected a 33-22 final.
The actual margin was 35 points versus MOFO's 10.9-point projection. That produced a 24.1-point margin error, with score errors of 2.5 for Republic and 21.6 for Joplin.
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD REPUBLIC
MOFO leans toward Republic because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 16.7-point power-rating advantage and projects a 10.9-point margin, with Republic carrying a 81% win probability.
The clearest separator is scoring: Republic enters at 35.1 points per game compared with 25.3 for Joplin. Republic also allows 5.1 fewer points per game, giving MOFO an edge on both sides of the ball.
Strength of schedule checks in at +0.2 for Republic and -2.4 for Joplin. Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses current-season results, the confidence remains high.
01Republic owns the stronger scoring profile.
02Republic has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 16.7-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.