JOHN BURROUGHS WRITES THE FINAL WORD

John Burroughs finished the job, as Lutheran South and John Burroughs finished 31-47. MOFO got the winner right; the model had projected a 29-30 final.

The actual margin was 16 points versus MOFO's 0.9-point projection. That produced a 15.1-point margin error, with score errors of 2.2 for Lutheran South and 17.2 for John Burroughs.

THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD JOHN BURROUGHS

MOFO leans toward John Burroughs because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 1.5-point power-rating advantage and projects a 0.9-point margin, with John Burroughs carrying a 53% win probability.

Lutheran South actually owns the stronger raw scoring average, so this pick is driven more by opponent adjustment and the complete power profile than offense alone. John Burroughs also allows 7.2 fewer points per game, giving MOFO an edge on both sides of the ball.

Strength of schedule checks in at +9.7 for John Burroughs and -4.9 for Lutheran South. Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses current-season results, the confidence remains low.