TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | Perryville | Jefferson (Festus) |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| PF / GAME | 28.7 | 27.6 |
| PA / GAME | 24.4 | 20.3 |
| AVG MARGIN | +3.8 | +12.2 |
| SOS | -4.7 | -7.7 |
| POWER | +2.2 | +9.5 |
JEFFERSON (FESTUS) WRITES THE FINAL WORD
Jefferson (Festus) finished the job, as Perryville and Jefferson (Festus) finished 7-35. MOFO got the winner right; the model had projected a 24-27 final.
The actual margin was 28 points versus MOFO's 3.4-point projection. That produced a 24.6-point margin error, with score errors of 16.5 for Perryville and 8.0 for Jefferson (Festus).
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD JEFFERSON (FESTUS)
MOFO leans toward Jefferson (Festus) because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 7.4-point power-rating advantage and projects a 3.4-point margin, with Jefferson (Festus) carrying a 61% win probability.
Perryville actually owns the stronger raw scoring average, so this pick is driven more by opponent adjustment and the complete power profile than offense alone. Jefferson (Festus) also allows 4.1 fewer points per game, giving MOFO an edge on both sides of the ball.
Strength of schedule checks in at -7.7 for Jefferson (Festus) and -4.7 for Perryville. Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses current-season results, the confidence remains medium.
01Perryville owns the stronger scoring profile.
02Perryville has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 7.4-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.