TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | Logan-Rogersville | Hillcrest |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 5-0 | 1-3 |
| PF / GAME | 41.6 | 22.5 |
| PA / GAME | 15.3 | 33.0 |
| AVG MARGIN | +28.9 | -13.9 |
| SOS | -6.3 | +0.9 |
| POWER | +26.7 | -13.6 |
LOGAN-ROGERSVILLE WRITES THE FINAL WORD
Logan-Rogersville finished the job, as Logan-Rogersville and Hillcrest finished 48-26. MOFO got the winner right; the model had projected a 41-15 final.
The actual margin was 22 points versus MOFO's 26.7-point projection. That produced a 4.7-point margin error, with score errors of 6.6 for Logan-Rogersville and 11.3 for Hillcrest.
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD LOGAN-ROGERSVILLE
MOFO leans toward Logan-Rogersville because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 40.2-point power-rating advantage and projects a 26.7-point margin, with Logan-Rogersville carrying a 95% win probability.
The clearest separator is scoring: Logan-Rogersville enters at 41.6 points per game compared with 22.5 for Hillcrest. Logan-Rogersville also allows 17.7 fewer points per game, giving MOFO an edge on both sides of the ball.
Strength of schedule checks in at -6.3 for Logan-Rogersville and +0.9 for Hillcrest. Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses current-season results, the confidence remains medium.
01Logan-Rogersville owns the stronger scoring profile.
02Hillcrest has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 40.2-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.