TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | St. James | Hermann |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 2-4 | 0-5 |
| PF / GAME | 17.0 | 11.9 |
| PA / GAME | 27.1 | 40.4 |
| AVG MARGIN | -14.1 | -34.2 |
| SOS | +7.3 | +11.8 |
| POWER | -11.5 | -30.1 |
HERMANN WRITES THE FINAL WORD
Hermann finished the job, as St. James and Hermann finished 13-14. MOFO's pick of St. James missed; the model had projected a 31-18 final.
The actual margin was 1 points versus MOFO's 12.9-point projection. That produced a 13.9-point margin error, with score errors of 17.6 for St. James and 3.6 for Hermann.
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD ST. JAMES
MOFO leans toward St. James because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 18.6-point power-rating advantage and projects a 12.9-point margin, with St. James carrying a 85% win probability.
The clearest separator is scoring: St. James enters at 17.0 points per game compared with 11.9 for Hermann. St. James also allows 13.3 fewer points per game, giving MOFO an edge on both sides of the ball.
Strength of schedule checks in at +7.3 for St. James and +11.8 for Hermann. Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses current-season results, the confidence remains high.
01St. James owns the stronger scoring profile.
02Hermann has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 18.6-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.