TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | Grandview (Hillsboro) | Herculaneum |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 0-5 | 2-3 |
| PF / GAME | 13.6 | 22.9 |
| PA / GAME | 36.9 | 23.6 |
| AVG MARGIN | -28.1 | -3.5 |
| SOS | +1.3 | +0.6 |
| POWER | -27.6 | -3.3 |
HERCULANEUM WRITES THE FINAL WORD
Herculaneum finished the job, as Grandview (Hillsboro) and Herculaneum finished 0-49. MOFO got the winner right; the model had projected a 16-32 final.
The actual margin was 49 points versus MOFO's 16.5-point projection. That produced a 32.5-point margin error, with score errors of 16.0 for Grandview (Hillsboro) and 16.5 for Herculaneum.
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD HERCULANEUM
MOFO leans toward Herculaneum because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 24.3-point power-rating advantage and projects a 16.5-point margin, with Herculaneum carrying a 90% win probability.
The clearest separator is scoring: Herculaneum enters at 22.9 points per game compared with 13.6 for Grandview (Hillsboro). Herculaneum also allows 13.3 fewer points per game, giving MOFO an edge on both sides of the ball.
Strength of schedule checks in at +0.6 for Herculaneum and +1.3 for Grandview (Hillsboro). Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses current-season results, the confidence remains high.
01Herculaneum owns the stronger scoring profile.
02Grandview (Hillsboro) has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 24.3-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.