TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | Ft. Zumwalt East | Ft. Zumwalt South |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 2-3 | 1-4 |
| PF / GAME | 30.4 | 19.6 |
| PA / GAME | 32.6 | 31.1 |
| AVG MARGIN | -5.9 | -15.8 |
| SOS | -4.1 | +1.1 |
| POWER | -7.4 | -15.4 |
FT. ZUMWALT EAST WRITES THE FINAL WORD
Ft. Zumwalt East finished the job, as Ft. Zumwalt East and Ft. Zumwalt South finished 20-18. MOFO got the winner right; the model had projected a 31-25 final.
The actual margin was 2 points versus MOFO's 6.0-point projection. That produced a 4.0-point margin error, with score errors of 11.4 for Ft. Zumwalt East and 7.4 for Ft. Zumwalt South.
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD FT. ZUMWALT EAST
MOFO leans toward Ft. Zumwalt East because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 8.0-point power-rating advantage and projects a 6.0-point margin, with Ft. Zumwalt East carrying a 69% win probability.
The clearest separator is scoring: Ft. Zumwalt East enters at 30.4 points per game compared with 19.6 for Ft. Zumwalt South. Ft. Zumwalt South's defensive numbers are competitive, which is the best statistical path to keeping the game tighter than projected.
Strength of schedule checks in at -4.1 for Ft. Zumwalt East and +1.1 for Ft. Zumwalt South. Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses current-season results, the confidence remains medium.
01Ft. Zumwalt East owns the stronger scoring profile.
02Ft. Zumwalt South has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 8.0-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.