TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | DeSoto | Fredericktown |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| PF / GAME | 26.6 | 18.1 |
| PA / GAME | 26.3 | 28.1 |
| AVG MARGIN | -0.5 | -12.3 |
| SOS | +3.5 | +10.1 |
| POWER | +0.7 | -8.7 |
DESOTO WRITES THE FINAL WORD
DeSoto finished the job, as DeSoto and Fredericktown finished 33-8. MOFO got the winner right; the model had projected a 28-21 final.
The actual margin was 25 points versus MOFO's 7.1-point projection. That produced a 17.9-point margin error, with score errors of 4.7 for DeSoto and 13.2 for Fredericktown.
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD DESOTO
MOFO leans toward DeSoto because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 9.4-point power-rating advantage and projects a 7.1-point margin, with DeSoto carrying a 72% win probability.
The clearest separator is scoring: DeSoto enters at 26.6 points per game compared with 18.1 for Fredericktown. DeSoto also allows 1.8 fewer points per game, giving MOFO an edge on both sides of the ball.
Strength of schedule checks in at +3.5 for DeSoto and +10.1 for Fredericktown. Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses current-season results, the confidence remains high.
01DeSoto owns the stronger scoring profile.
02Fredericktown has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 9.4-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.