TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | Strafford | Forsyth |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 4-1 | 1-4 |
| PF / GAME | 29.4 | 25.0 |
| PA / GAME | 20.9 | 26.9 |
| AVG MARGIN | +12.6 | -2.5 |
| SOS | -9.3 | +0.3 |
| POWER | +9.3 | -2.5 |
FORSYTH WRITES THE FINAL WORD
Forsyth finished the job, as Strafford and Forsyth finished 7-24. MOFO's pick of Strafford missed; the model had projected a 29-22 final.
The actual margin was 17 points versus MOFO's 7.9-point projection. That produced a 24.9-point margin error, with score errors of 22.5 for Strafford and 2.4 for Forsyth.
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD STRAFFORD
MOFO leans toward Strafford because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 11.8-point power-rating advantage and projects a 7.9-point margin, with Strafford carrying a 74% win probability.
The clearest separator is scoring: Strafford enters at 29.4 points per game compared with 25.0 for Forsyth. Strafford also allows 6.0 fewer points per game, giving MOFO an edge on both sides of the ball.
Strength of schedule checks in at -9.3 for Strafford and +0.3 for Forsyth. Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses current-season results, the confidence remains high.
01Strafford owns the stronger scoring profile.
02Forsyth has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 11.8-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.