TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | North County | Festus |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| PF / GAME | 23.9 | 29.1 |
| PA / GAME | 31.9 | 17.3 |
| AVG MARGIN | -6.5 | +17.9 |
| SOS | +3.5 | +0.9 |
| POWER | -5.2 | +18.2 |
FESTUS WRITES THE FINAL WORD
Festus finished the job, as North County and Festus finished 31-55. MOFO got the winner right; the model had projected a 18-33 final.
The actual margin was 24 points versus MOFO's 14.9-point projection. That produced a 9.1-point margin error, with score errors of 12.9 for North County and 22.0 for Festus.
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD FESTUS
MOFO leans toward Festus because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 23.4-point power-rating advantage and projects a 14.9-point margin, with Festus carrying a 88% win probability.
The clearest separator is scoring: Festus enters at 29.1 points per game compared with 23.9 for North County. Festus also allows 14.6 fewer points per game, giving MOFO an edge on both sides of the ball.
Strength of schedule checks in at +0.9 for Festus and +3.5 for North County. Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses current-season results, the confidence remains high.
01Festus owns the stronger scoring profile.
02North County has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 23.4-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.