TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | Chillicothe | Father Tolton |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| PF / GAME | 22.6 | 31.3 |
| PA / GAME | 22.3 | 26.3 |
| AVG MARGIN | -0.1 | +6.9 |
| SOS | -0.0 | +0.7 |
| POWER | -0.1 | +7.2 |
FATHER TOLTON WRITES THE FINAL WORD
Father Tolton finished the job, as Chillicothe and Father Tolton finished 26-41. MOFO got the winner right; the model had projected a 24-28 final.
The actual margin was 15 points versus MOFO's 4.0-point projection. That produced a 11.0-point margin error, with score errors of 2.4 for Chillicothe and 13.4 for Father Tolton.
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD FATHER TOLTON
MOFO leans toward Father Tolton because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 7.3-point power-rating advantage and projects a 4.0-point margin, with Father Tolton carrying a 63% win probability.
The clearest separator is scoring: Father Tolton enters at 31.3 points per game compared with 22.6 for Chillicothe. Chillicothe's defensive numbers are competitive, which is the best statistical path to keeping the game tighter than projected.
Strength of schedule checks in at +0.7 for Father Tolton and -0.0 for Chillicothe. Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses current-season results, the confidence remains medium.
01Father Tolton owns the stronger scoring profile.
02Father Tolton has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 7.3-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.