TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | Marquette | Eureka |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 3-1 | 4-1 |
| PF / GAME | 28.2 | 32.7 |
| PA / GAME | 25.5 | 25.3 |
| AVG MARGIN | +3.1 | +11.8 |
| SOS | +4.0 | +11.1 |
| POWER | +4.5 | +15.7 |
EUREKA WRITES THE FINAL WORD
Eureka finished the job, as Marquette and Eureka finished 28-55. MOFO got the winner right; the model had projected a 25-31 final.
The actual margin was 27 points versus MOFO's 5.4-point projection. That produced a 21.6-point margin error, with score errors of 2.8 for Marquette and 24.4 for Eureka.
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD EUREKA
MOFO leans toward Eureka because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 11.1-point power-rating advantage and projects a 5.4-point margin, with Eureka carrying a 67% win probability.
The clearest separator is scoring: Eureka enters at 32.7 points per game compared with 28.2 for Marquette. Eureka also allows 0.2 fewer points per game, giving MOFO an edge on both sides of the ball.
Strength of schedule checks in at +11.1 for Eureka and +4.0 for Marquette. Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses current-season results, the confidence remains medium.
01Eureka owns the stronger scoring profile.
02Eureka has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 11.1-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.