TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | Westran | Duchesne |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 3-1 | 1-3 |
| PF / GAME | 29.5 | 23.0 |
| PA / GAME | 23.3 | 32.5 |
| AVG MARGIN | +8.7 | -12.9 |
| SOS | -13.3 | -15.3 |
| POWER | +4.0 | -18.2 |
WESTRAN WRITES THE FINAL WORD
Westran finished the job, as Westran and Duchesne finished 40-8. MOFO got the winner right; the model had projected a 33-21 final.
The actual margin was 32 points versus MOFO's 12.5-point projection. That produced a 19.5-point margin error, with score errors of 6.7 for Westran and 12.8 for Duchesne.
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD WESTRAN
MOFO leans toward Westran because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 22.2-point power-rating advantage and projects a 12.5-point margin, with Westran carrying a 84% win probability.
The clearest separator is scoring: Westran enters at 29.5 points per game compared with 23.0 for Duchesne. Westran also allows 9.2 fewer points per game, giving MOFO an edge on both sides of the ball.
Strength of schedule checks in at -13.3 for Westran and -15.3 for Duchesne. Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses current-season results, the confidence remains medium.
01Westran owns the stronger scoring profile.
02Westran has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 22.2-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.