TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | Stockton with Sheldon | Diamond |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 1-4 | 0-4 |
| PF / GAME | 20.6 | 16.8 |
| PA / GAME | 27.3 | 37.7 |
| AVG MARGIN | -11.8 | -26.5 |
| SOS | +5.1 | +7.5 |
| POWER | -10.0 | -23.8 |
STOCKTON WITH SHELDON WRITES THE FINAL WORD
Stockton with Sheldon finished the job, as Stockton with Sheldon and Diamond finished 44-33. MOFO got the winner right; the model had projected a 30-21 final.
The actual margin was 11 points versus MOFO's 9.6-point projection. That produced a 1.4-point margin error, with score errors of 13.6 for Stockton with Sheldon and 12.2 for Diamond.
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD STOCKTON WITH SHELDON
MOFO leans toward Stockton with Sheldon because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 13.8-point power-rating advantage and projects a 9.6-point margin, with Stockton with Sheldon carrying a 78% win probability.
The clearest separator is scoring: Stockton with Sheldon enters at 20.6 points per game compared with 16.8 for Diamond. Stockton with Sheldon also allows 10.4 fewer points per game, giving MOFO an edge on both sides of the ball.
Strength of schedule checks in at +5.1 for Stockton with Sheldon and +7.5 for Diamond. Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses current-season results, the confidence remains medium.
01Stockton with Sheldon owns the stronger scoring profile.
02Diamond has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 13.8-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.