TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | Central (New Madrid County) | Dexter |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 1-4 | 2-3 |
| PF / GAME | 22.1 | 31.3 |
| PA / GAME | 34.3 | 20.3 |
| AVG MARGIN | -14.8 | +10.0 |
| SOS | +0.7 | -1.0 |
| POWER | -14.5 | +9.7 |
DEXTER WRITES THE FINAL WORD
Dexter finished the job, as Central (New Madrid County) and Dexter finished 12-26. MOFO got the winner right; the model had projected a 18-36 final.
The actual margin was 14 points versus MOFO's 17.1-point projection. That produced a 3.1-point margin error, with score errors of 6.4 for Central (New Madrid County) and 9.6 for Dexter.
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD DEXTER
MOFO leans toward Dexter because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 24.2-point power-rating advantage and projects a 17.1-point margin, with Dexter carrying a 91% win probability.
The clearest separator is scoring: Dexter enters at 31.3 points per game compared with 22.1 for Central (New Madrid County). Dexter also allows 14.0 fewer points per game, giving MOFO an edge on both sides of the ball.
Strength of schedule checks in at -1.0 for Dexter and +0.7 for Central (New Madrid County). Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses current-season results, the confidence remains high.
01Dexter owns the stronger scoring profile.
02Central (New Madrid County) has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 24.2-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.