TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | Santa Fe | Concordia |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| PF / GAME | 42.1 | 28.7 |
| PA / GAME | 34.4 | 17.0 |
| AVG MARGIN | +4.2 | +16.3 |
| SOS | -6.6 | -10.4 |
| POWER | +1.9 | +12.7 |
SANTA FE WRITES THE FINAL WORD
Santa Fe finished the job, as Santa Fe and Concordia finished 44-20. MOFO's pick of Concordia missed; the model had projected a 28-33 final.
The actual margin was 24 points versus MOFO's 4.7-point projection. That produced a 28.7-point margin error, with score errors of 15.8 for Santa Fe and 12.9 for Concordia.
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD CONCORDIA
MOFO leans toward Concordia because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 10.8-point power-rating advantage and projects a 4.7-point margin, with Concordia carrying a 65% win probability.
Santa Fe actually owns the stronger raw scoring average, so this pick is driven more by opponent adjustment and the complete power profile than offense alone. Concordia also allows 17.4 fewer points per game, giving MOFO an edge on both sides of the ball.
Strength of schedule checks in at -10.4 for Concordia and -6.6 for Santa Fe. Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses current-season results, the confidence remains medium.
01Santa Fe owns the stronger scoring profile.
02Santa Fe has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 10.8-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.