TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | Crest Ridge with Chilhowee | Cole Camp |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| PF / GAME | 20.7 | 19.1 |
| PA / GAME | 26.1 | 24.3 |
| AVG MARGIN | -5.9 | -2.4 |
| SOS | -5.4 | +2.2 |
| POWER | -7.8 | -1.6 |
COLE CAMP WRITES THE FINAL WORD
Cole Camp finished the job, as Crest Ridge with Chilhowee and Cole Camp finished 6-27. MOFO got the winner right; the model had projected a 22-24 final.
The actual margin was 21 points versus MOFO's 2.1-point projection. That produced a 18.9-point margin error, with score errors of 15.5 for Crest Ridge with Chilhowee and 3.4 for Cole Camp.
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD COLE CAMP
MOFO leans toward Cole Camp because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 6.2-point power-rating advantage and projects a 2.1-point margin, with Cole Camp carrying a 57% win probability.
Crest Ridge with Chilhowee actually owns the stronger raw scoring average, so this pick is driven more by opponent adjustment and the complete power profile than offense alone. Cole Camp also allows 1.8 fewer points per game, giving MOFO an edge on both sides of the ball.
Strength of schedule checks in at +2.2 for Cole Camp and -5.4 for Crest Ridge with Chilhowee. Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses current-season results, the confidence remains low.
01Crest Ridge with Chilhowee owns the stronger scoring profile.
02Cole Camp has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 6.2-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.