TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | Saxony Lutheran | Charleston |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 2-2 | 2-2 |
| PF / GAME | 32.2 | 28.2 |
| PA / GAME | 29.7 | 37.8 |
| AVG MARGIN | +3.2 | -14.1 |
| SOS | +1.6 | +2.1 |
| POWER | +3.7 | -13.3 |
SAXONY LUTHERAN WRITES THE FINAL WORD
Saxony Lutheran finished the job, as Saxony Lutheran and Charleston finished 27-12. MOFO got the winner right; the model had projected a 37-27 final.
The actual margin was 15 points versus MOFO's 9.9-point projection. That produced a 5.1-point margin error, with score errors of 9.9 for Saxony Lutheran and 15.0 for Charleston.
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD SAXONY LUTHERAN
MOFO leans toward Saxony Lutheran because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 17.1-point power-rating advantage and projects a 9.9-point margin, with Saxony Lutheran carrying a 79% win probability.
The clearest separator is scoring: Saxony Lutheran enters at 32.2 points per game compared with 28.2 for Charleston. Saxony Lutheran also allows 8.1 fewer points per game, giving MOFO an edge on both sides of the ball.
Strength of schedule checks in at +1.6 for Saxony Lutheran and +2.1 for Charleston. Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses current-season results, the confidence remains medium.
01Saxony Lutheran owns the stronger scoring profile.
02Charleston has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 17.1-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.