TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | Monroe City | Centralia |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 3-2 | 5-0 |
| PF / GAME | 29.6 | 42.1 |
| PA / GAME | 17.9 | 18.6 |
| AVG MARGIN | +11.7 | +30.8 |
| SOS | -6.9 | -5.8 |
| POWER | +9.3 | +28.7 |
CENTRALIA WRITES THE FINAL WORD
Centralia finished the job, as Monroe City and Centralia finished 6-44. MOFO got the winner right; the model had projected a 22-32 final.
The actual margin was 38 points versus MOFO's 10.3-point projection. That produced a 27.7-point margin error, with score errors of 15.9 for Monroe City and 11.8 for Centralia.
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD CENTRALIA
MOFO leans toward Centralia because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 19.4-point power-rating advantage and projects a 10.3-point margin, with Centralia carrying a 80% win probability.
The clearest separator is scoring: Centralia enters at 42.1 points per game compared with 29.6 for Monroe City. Monroe City's defensive numbers are competitive, which is the best statistical path to keeping the game tighter than projected.
Strength of schedule checks in at -5.8 for Centralia and -6.9 for Monroe City. Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses current-season results, the confidence remains high.
01Centralia owns the stronger scoring profile.
02Centralia has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 19.4-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.