TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | Ste. Genevieve | Central (Park Hills) |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| PF / GAME | 31.3 | 19.9 |
| PA / GAME | 19.0 | 33.3 |
| AVG MARGIN | +15.6 | -13.5 |
| SOS | -0.3 | +16.0 |
| POWER | +15.5 | -7.9 |
STE. GENEVIEVE WRITES THE FINAL WORD
Ste. Genevieve finished the job, as Ste. Genevieve and Central (Park Hills) finished 20-7. MOFO got the winner right; the model had projected a 35-17 final.
The actual margin was 13 points versus MOFO's 18.0-point projection. That produced a 5.0-point margin error, with score errors of 14.9 for Ste. Genevieve and 9.9 for Central (Park Hills).
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD STE. GENEVIEVE
MOFO leans toward Ste. Genevieve because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 23.3-point power-rating advantage and projects a 18.0-point margin, with Ste. Genevieve carrying a 92% win probability.
The clearest separator is scoring: Ste. Genevieve enters at 31.3 points per game compared with 19.9 for Central (Park Hills). Ste. Genevieve also allows 14.3 fewer points per game, giving MOFO an edge on both sides of the ball.
Strength of schedule checks in at -0.3 for Ste. Genevieve and +16.0 for Central (Park Hills). Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses current-season results, the confidence remains high.
01Ste. Genevieve owns the stronger scoring profile.
02Central (Park Hills) has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 23.3-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.