TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | Lamar | Cassville |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 5-0 | 5-0 |
| PF / GAME | 37.6 | 39.6 |
| PA / GAME | 16.4 | 17.9 |
| AVG MARGIN | +26.6 | +26.8 |
| SOS | -10.7 | -8.0 |
| POWER | +22.9 | +24.0 |
LAMAR WRITES THE FINAL WORD
Lamar finished the job, as Lamar and Cassville finished 28-21. MOFO's pick of Cassville missed; the model had projected a 28-28 final.
The actual margin was 7 points versus MOFO's 0.4-point projection. That produced a 7.4-point margin error, with score errors of 0.4 for Lamar and 7.1 for Cassville.
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD CASSVILLE
MOFO leans toward Cassville because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 1.1-point power-rating advantage and projects a 0.4-point margin, with Cassville carrying a 51% win probability.
The clearest separator is scoring: Cassville enters at 39.6 points per game compared with 37.6 for Lamar. Lamar's defensive numbers are competitive, which is the best statistical path to keeping the game tighter than projected.
Strength of schedule checks in at -8.0 for Cassville and -10.7 for Lamar. Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses current-season results, the confidence remains low.
01Cassville owns the stronger scoring profile.
02Cassville has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 1.1-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.