TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | Helias Catholic | Capital City |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 5-0 | 1-4 |
| PF / GAME | 33.6 | 24.3 |
| PA / GAME | 15.9 | 30.4 |
| AVG MARGIN | +22.0 | -9.7 |
| SOS | +2.6 | +2.8 |
| POWER | +22.9 | -8.8 |
HELIAS CATHOLIC WRITES THE FINAL WORD
Helias Catholic finished the job, as Helias Catholic and Capital City finished 42-0. MOFO got the winner right; the model had projected a 36-16 final.
The actual margin was 42 points versus MOFO's 19.2-point projection. That produced a 22.8-point margin error, with score errors of 6.4 for Helias Catholic and 16.5 for Capital City.
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD HELIAS CATHOLIC
MOFO leans toward Helias Catholic because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 31.7-point power-rating advantage and projects a 19.2-point margin, with Helias Catholic carrying a 93% win probability.
The clearest separator is scoring: Helias Catholic enters at 33.6 points per game compared with 24.3 for Capital City. Helias Catholic also allows 14.5 fewer points per game, giving MOFO an edge on both sides of the ball.
Strength of schedule checks in at +2.6 for Helias Catholic and +2.8 for Capital City. Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses current-season results, the confidence remains high.
01Helias Catholic owns the stronger scoring profile.
02Capital City has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 31.7-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.