TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | Osage | California |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 2-3 | 1-4 |
| PF / GAME | 23.7 | 22.1 |
| PA / GAME | 31.4 | 36.9 |
| AVG MARGIN | -5.8 | -20.1 |
| SOS | +0.2 | +14.7 |
| POWER | -5.8 | -14.9 |
OSAGE WRITES THE FINAL WORD
Osage finished the job, as Osage and California finished 49-35. MOFO got the winner right; the model had projected a 31-26 final.
The actual margin was 14 points versus MOFO's 5.9-point projection. That produced a 8.1-point margin error, with score errors of 17.5 for Osage and 9.4 for California.
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD OSAGE
MOFO leans toward Osage because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 9.2-point power-rating advantage and projects a 5.9-point margin, with Osage carrying a 69% win probability.
The clearest separator is scoring: Osage enters at 23.7 points per game compared with 22.1 for California. Osage also allows 5.5 fewer points per game, giving MOFO an edge on both sides of the ball.
Strength of schedule checks in at +0.2 for Osage and +14.7 for California. Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses current-season results, the confidence remains medium.
01Osage owns the stronger scoring profile.
02California has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 9.2-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.