TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | Sherwood | Butler |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| PF / GAME | 25.9 | 30.9 |
| PA / GAME | 17.7 | 26.9 |
| AVG MARGIN | +6.2 | +7.9 |
| SOS | -11.4 | -5.0 |
| POWER | +2.2 | +6.2 |
BUTLER WRITES THE FINAL WORD
Butler finished the job, as Sherwood and Butler finished 16-54. MOFO's pick of Sherwood missed; the model had projected a 26-25 final.
The actual margin was 38 points versus MOFO's 0.7-point projection. That produced a 38.7-point margin error, with score errors of 9.7 for Sherwood and 29.0 for Butler.
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD SHERWOOD
MOFO leans toward Sherwood because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 4.0-point power-rating advantage and projects a 0.7-point margin, with Sherwood carrying a 52% win probability.
Butler actually owns the stronger raw scoring average, so this pick is driven more by opponent adjustment and the complete power profile than offense alone. Sherwood also allows 9.2 fewer points per game, giving MOFO an edge on both sides of the ball.
Strength of schedule checks in at -11.4 for Sherwood and -5.0 for Butler. Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses current-season results, the confidence remains low.
01Butler owns the stronger scoring profile.
02Butler has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 4.0-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.