TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | Boonville | Blair Oaks |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| PF / GAME | 36.4 | 38.4 |
| PA / GAME | 23.7 | 20.9 |
| AVG MARGIN | +10.7 | +22.0 |
| SOS | -8.1 | +3.8 |
| POWER | +7.9 | +23.3 |
BLAIR OAKS WRITES THE FINAL WORD
Blair Oaks finished the job, as Boonville and Blair Oaks finished 13-49. MOFO got the winner right; the model had projected a 26-33 final.
The actual margin was 36 points versus MOFO's 7.1-point projection. That produced a 28.9-point margin error, with score errors of 13.3 for Boonville and 15.6 for Blair Oaks.
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD BLAIR OAKS
MOFO leans toward Blair Oaks because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 15.4-point power-rating advantage and projects a 7.1-point margin, with Blair Oaks carrying a 72% win probability.
The clearest separator is scoring: Blair Oaks enters at 38.4 points per game compared with 36.4 for Boonville. Blair Oaks also allows 2.8 fewer points per game, giving MOFO an edge on both sides of the ball.
Strength of schedule checks in at +3.8 for Blair Oaks and -8.1 for Boonville. Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses current-season results, the confidence remains high.
01Blair Oaks owns the stronger scoring profile.
02Blair Oaks has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 15.4-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.