TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | Grain Valley | Belton |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| PF / GAME | 25.9 | 26.1 |
| PA / GAME | 25.0 | 27.6 |
| AVG MARGIN | +2.0 | +1.8 |
| SOS | +9.8 | -2.2 |
| POWER | +5.5 | +1.0 |
GRAIN VALLEY WRITES THE FINAL WORD
Grain Valley finished the job, as Grain Valley and Belton finished 49-20. MOFO got the winner right; the model had projected a 27-25 final.
The actual margin was 29 points versus MOFO's 2.0-point projection. That produced a 27.0-point margin error, with score errors of 21.9 for Grain Valley and 5.1 for Belton.
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD GRAIN VALLEY
MOFO leans toward Grain Valley because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 4.4-point power-rating advantage and projects a 2.0-point margin, with Grain Valley carrying a 57% win probability.
Belton actually owns the stronger raw scoring average, so this pick is driven more by opponent adjustment and the complete power profile than offense alone. Grain Valley also allows 2.6 fewer points per game, giving MOFO an edge on both sides of the ball.
Strength of schedule checks in at +9.8 for Grain Valley and -2.2 for Belton. Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses current-season results, the confidence remains low.
01Belton owns the stronger scoring profile.
02Grain Valley has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 4.4-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.