TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | Smith-Cotton | Battle |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 1-4 | 0-5 |
| PF / GAME | 23.6 | 9.6 |
| PA / GAME | 36.7 | 38.6 |
| AVG MARGIN | -17.6 | -35.0 |
| SOS | +7.8 | +6.8 |
| POWER | -14.9 | -32.6 |
SMITH-COTTON WRITES THE FINAL WORD
Smith-Cotton finished the job, as Smith-Cotton and Battle finished 39-0. MOFO got the winner right; the model had projected a 33-21 final.
The actual margin was 39 points versus MOFO's 11.7-point projection. That produced a 27.3-point margin error, with score errors of 6.0 for Smith-Cotton and 21.2 for Battle.
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD SMITH-COTTON
MOFO leans toward Smith-Cotton because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 17.7-point power-rating advantage and projects a 11.7-point margin, with Smith-Cotton carrying a 83% win probability.
The clearest separator is scoring: Smith-Cotton enters at 23.6 points per game compared with 9.6 for Battle. Smith-Cotton also allows 1.9 fewer points per game, giving MOFO an edge on both sides of the ball.
Strength of schedule checks in at +7.8 for Smith-Cotton and +6.8 for Battle. Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses current-season results, the confidence remains high.
01Smith-Cotton owns the stronger scoring profile.
02Smith-Cotton has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 17.7-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.