TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | Houston | Ava |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| PF / GAME | 29.4 | 18.6 |
| PA / GAME | 30.1 | 25.9 |
| AVG MARGIN | -1.7 | -4.8 |
| SOS | +0.6 | +7.0 |
| POWER | -1.5 | -2.4 |
AVA WRITES THE FINAL WORD
Ava finished the job, as Houston and Ava finished 19-33. MOFO's pick of Houston missed; the model had projected a 28-24 final.
The actual margin was 14 points versus MOFO's 3.3-point projection. That produced a 17.3-point margin error, with score errors of 8.6 for Houston and 8.6 for Ava.
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD HOUSTON
MOFO leans toward Houston because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 0.9-point power-rating advantage and projects a 3.3-point margin, with Houston carrying a 61% win probability.
The clearest separator is scoring: Houston enters at 29.4 points per game compared with 18.6 for Ava. Ava's defensive numbers are competitive, which is the best statistical path to keeping the game tighter than projected.
Strength of schedule checks in at +0.6 for Houston and +7.0 for Ava. Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses current-season results, the confidence remains medium.
01Houston owns the stronger scoring profile.
02Ava has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 0.9-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.