TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | Pierce City | Ash Grove |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| PF / GAME | 27.0 | 24.0 |
| PA / GAME | 20.3 | 23.6 |
| AVG MARGIN | +9.0 | +0.5 |
| SOS | +14.8 | -5.8 |
| POWER | +14.2 | -1.5 |
ASH GROVE WRITES THE FINAL WORD
Ash Grove finished the job, as Pierce City and Ash Grove finished 6-12. MOFO's pick of Pierce City missed; the model had projected a 28-20 final.
The actual margin was 6 points versus MOFO's 7.6-point projection. That produced a 13.6-point margin error, with score errors of 21.5 for Pierce City and 7.9 for Ash Grove.
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD PIERCE CITY
MOFO leans toward Pierce City because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 15.7-point power-rating advantage and projects a 7.6-point margin, with Pierce City carrying a 73% win probability.
The clearest separator is scoring: Pierce City enters at 27.0 points per game compared with 24.0 for Ash Grove. Pierce City also allows 3.3 fewer points per game, giving MOFO an edge on both sides of the ball.
Strength of schedule checks in at +14.8 for Pierce City and -5.8 for Ash Grove. Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses current-season results, the confidence remains high.
01Pierce City owns the stronger scoring profile.
02Pierce City has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 15.7-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.