TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | Appleton City | Archie |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| PF / GAME | 44.0 | 47.3 |
| PA / GAME | 23.9 | 28.0 |
| AVG MARGIN | +25.7 | +15.0 |
| SOS | +2.2 | -3.2 |
| POWER | +26.4 | +13.8 |
APPLETON CITY WRITES THE FINAL WORD
Appleton City finished the job, as Appleton City and Archie finished 44-26. MOFO got the winner right; the model had projected a 38-34 final.
The actual margin was 18 points versus MOFO's 3.5-point projection. That produced a 14.5-point margin error, with score errors of 6.5 for Appleton City and 8.1 for Archie.
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD APPLETON CITY
MOFO leans toward Appleton City because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 12.6-point power-rating advantage and projects a 3.5-point margin, with Appleton City carrying a 61% win probability.
Archie actually owns the stronger raw scoring average, so this pick is driven more by opponent adjustment and the complete power profile than offense alone. Appleton City also allows 4.1 fewer points per game, giving MOFO an edge on both sides of the ball.
Strength of schedule checks in at +2.2 for Appleton City and -3.2 for Archie. Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses current-season results, the confidence remains medium.
01Archie owns the stronger scoring profile.
02Appleton City has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 12.6-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.