TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | Versailles | Adrian |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| PF / GAME | 19.0 | 21.7 |
| PA / GAME | 22.6 | 24.9 |
| AVG MARGIN | -3.4 | -4.0 |
| SOS | +1.6 | +0.6 |
| POWER | -2.8 | -3.8 |
VERSAILLES WRITES THE FINAL WORD
Versailles finished the job, as Versailles and Adrian finished 16-14. MOFO's pick of Adrian missed; the model had projected a 22-22 final.
The actual margin was 2 points versus MOFO's 0.0-point projection. That produced a 2.0-point margin error, with score errors of 6.0 for Versailles and 8.1 for Adrian.
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD ADRIAN
MOFO leans toward Adrian because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 0.9-point power-rating advantage and projects a 0.0-point margin, with Adrian carrying a 50% win probability.
The clearest separator is scoring: Adrian enters at 21.7 points per game compared with 19.0 for Versailles. Versailles's defensive numbers are competitive, which is the best statistical path to keeping the game tighter than projected.
Strength of schedule checks in at +0.6 for Adrian and +1.6 for Versailles. Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses current-season results, the confidence remains low.
01Adrian owns the stronger scoring profile.
02Versailles has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 0.9-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.