TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | Mark Twain | Wright City |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 1-3 | 0-4 |
| PF / GAME | 20.5 | 19.0 |
| PA / GAME | 27.9 | 36.4 |
| AVG MARGIN | -9.3 | -25.7 |
| SOS | -10.6 | +7.1 |
| POWER | -13.0 | -23.2 |
WRIGHT CITY WRITES THE FINAL WORD
Wright City finished the job, as Mark Twain and Wright City finished 6-40. MOFO's pick of Mark Twain missed; the model had projected a 29-23 final.
The actual margin was 34 points versus MOFO's 6.3-point projection. That produced a 40.3-point margin error, with score errors of 23.1 for Mark Twain and 17.2 for Wright City.
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD MARK TWAIN
MOFO leans toward Mark Twain because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 10.2-point power-rating advantage and projects a 6.3-point margin, with Mark Twain carrying a 70% win probability.
The clearest separator is scoring: Mark Twain enters at 20.5 points per game compared with 19.0 for Wright City. Mark Twain also allows 8.5 fewer points per game, giving MOFO an edge on both sides of the ball.
Strength of schedule checks in at -10.6 for Mark Twain and +7.1 for Wright City. Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses current-season results, the confidence remains medium.
01Mark Twain owns the stronger scoring profile.
02Wright City has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 10.2-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.