TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | St. Charles | Winfield |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 1-2 | 2-2 |
| PF / GAME | 20.2 | 25.9 |
| PA / GAME | 31.8 | 25.7 |
| AVG MARGIN | -16.0 | -2.6 |
| SOS | -6.5 | -0.5 |
| POWER | -18.3 | -2.8 |
WINFIELD WRITES THE FINAL WORD
Winfield finished the job, as St. Charles and Winfield finished 6-21. MOFO got the winner right; the model had projected a 21-30 final.
The actual margin was 15 points versus MOFO's 9.1-point projection. That produced a 5.9-point margin error, with score errors of 15.3 for St. Charles and 9.5 for Winfield.
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD WINFIELD
MOFO leans toward Winfield because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 15.5-point power-rating advantage and projects a 9.1-point margin, with Winfield carrying a 77% win probability.
The clearest separator is scoring: Winfield enters at 25.9 points per game compared with 20.2 for St. Charles. Winfield also allows 6.1 fewer points per game, giving MOFO an edge on both sides of the ball.
Strength of schedule checks in at -0.5 for Winfield and -6.5 for St. Charles. Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses current-season results, the confidence remains medium.
01Winfield owns the stronger scoring profile.
02Winfield has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 15.5-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.