TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | Liberty (Mountain View) | Willow Springs |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 3-1 | 1-3 |
| PF / GAME | 26.9 | 23.0 |
| PA / GAME | 19.9 | 29.7 |
| AVG MARGIN | +8.9 | -8.7 |
| SOS | -1.1 | +2.0 |
| POWER | +8.5 | -8.0 |
LIBERTY (MOUNTAIN VIEW) WRITES THE FINAL WORD
Liberty (Mountain View) finished the job, as Liberty (Mountain View) and Willow Springs finished 34-27. MOFO got the winner right; the model had projected a 30-20 final.
The actual margin was 7 points versus MOFO's 10.1-point projection. That produced a 3.1-point margin error, with score errors of 4.1 for Liberty (Mountain View) and 7.2 for Willow Springs.
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD LIBERTY (MOUNTAIN VIEW)
MOFO leans toward Liberty (Mountain View) because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 16.4-point power-rating advantage and projects a 10.1-point margin, with Liberty (Mountain View) carrying a 79% win probability.
The clearest separator is scoring: Liberty (Mountain View) enters at 26.9 points per game compared with 23.0 for Willow Springs. Liberty (Mountain View) also allows 9.8 fewer points per game, giving MOFO an edge on both sides of the ball.
Strength of schedule checks in at -1.1 for Liberty (Mountain View) and +2.0 for Willow Springs. Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses current-season results, the confidence remains medium.
01Liberty (Mountain View) owns the stronger scoring profile.
02Willow Springs has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 16.4-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.